Matt Fitzpatrick leads by one heading into the final round of the RBC Heritage. However, trying to predict whether the reigning U.S. Open champion can close things out at Harbour Tour Golf Links—and claim the $3.6 million first-place prize money payout in the PGA Tour’s latest $20 million designated event—is tricky business given the conflicting trends.
Working for Fitzpatrick: He’s coming off a career-best 63 on Saturday that jumped him into the lead. Working against him: 14 other players, including three major champions (Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker) are within four shots.
Working against Fitzpatrick: He has had just two top-10 finishes this season and is 81st in the FedEx Cup points standings. Working for him: One of those top-10s came last week at the Masters, when he finished T-10.
Working for Fitzpatrick: The last time he held a 54-hole lead entering the final round of a PGA Tour event was at The Country Club, where he closed out the title for his first PGA Tour victory/major. Working against him: Just four 54-hole leaders at Harbour Town since 2010 have gone on to win.
Working against Fitzpatrick: 12 of 25 winners this season came from behind in the final round to win. Working for him: Fitzy has a 69.2 final-round scoring average in this event.
OK, can this year’s previous designated events provide any more context? Well … maybe. In four of the six designated events/majors played so far in 2023, the 54-hole leader has gone on to win the title. (We discountred the WGC-Dell Match Play given it doesn’t apply here.)
Event: 54-hole leader/Winner
Sentry TOC: Collin Morikawa/Jon Rahm
WM Phoenix Open: Scottie Scheffler/Scheffler
Genesis Invitational: Jon Rahm/Rahm
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Kirt Kitayama/Kitayama
Players Championship: Scottie Scheffler/Scheffler
Masters: Brooks Koepka/Jon Rahm
Confused? Well, whether it’s Fitzpatrick or somebody else, the winner will walk away with the latest impressive winner’s check—we did mention the $3.6 million, didn’t we?—as well as the tournament’s traditional tartan jacket.
Here’s the prize money payout for each golfer who made the cut will earn this week. Come back shortly after the conclusion of the tournament on Sunday and we’ll update this list with individual names and money earned.