All anyone could talk about Thursday at Los Angeles Country Club was the record scores being shot in the opening round of the U.S. Open, where the 71.38 average broke the previous mark for lowest opening-round total. That chatter will no doubt continue Friday as the tournament within a tournament comes into full focus: making the 36-hole cut.
Indeed, while players will be jockeying for position atop the leader board in hopes of eventually winning the championship come Sunday, many others will be simply trying to just make sure they’re still in California come the weekend.
Unlike the PGA Championship and the Open Championship, which allows the low 70 players and ties to play all four rounds, the USGA has a slightly higher bar for its “cut rule,” taking only the low 60 and ties. And there is no “10-stroke rule” in effect to help determine the U.S. Open cut; the USGA did away with it in 2011.
With 37 players posting under-par scores in the first round—led by Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele’s all-time record 62s—the projected cutline from datagolf.com at the start of Friday was 38.4 percent probability of two-over-par 142. That 142 total would break the record for lowest cutline in U.S. Open history, set first in 2003 at Olympia Fields and matched just a year ago at The Country Club. Datagolf.com says the probability of the cutline dropping to one-over 141 is 26.5 percent with and 22 percent probability it jumps to three-over 143.
If you think just making the cut doesn’t mean much in determining the ultimate winner, we will continue to refer you to what happened five years ago at Shinnecock Hills. Tony Finau and Daniel Berger had made the 36-hole cut with one stroke to spare, but were 11 strokes off the lead when they teed off on Saturday morning in the third round. They each posted four-under 66s, and when the winds picked up in the afternoon—along with the scores—Finau and Berger found themselves tied for the lead after 54 holes. Finau would eventually finish fifth and Berger would come in tied for sixth, each securing spots into the 2019 championship with their weekend play. So yeah, even just making the cut is a big deal. (Oh, and they’re playing for a record $20 million in prize money, so getting to the weekend, even on the number, can be financially very lucrative, too.)
One of the other questions at the U.S. Open is also whether any of the 19 amateurs competing will make the cut. Three made the cut at year ago at The Country Club after none played on the weekend in 2021, the first time that had happened since 2007. Despite all the low scores, just one amateur, Vanderbilt’s Gordon Sargent, broke par on Day 1.
Here’s what the cutline has been for the last 10 U.S. Opens:
2022: 143 (+3), The Country Club
2021: 146 (+4), Torrey Pines
2020: 146 (+6), Winged Foot
2019: 144 (+2), Pebble Beach
2018: 148 (+8), Shinnecock Hills
2017: 145 (+1), Erin Hills
2016: 146 (+6), Oakmont
2015: 145 (+5), Chambers Bay
2014: 145 (+5), Pinehurst No. 2
2013: 148 (+8), Merion
2012: 148 (+8), Olympic Club
For history buffs, here are some stats related to the cut at the U.S. Open:
Highest 36-Hole Cut (Since World War II):
155 (15 over), The Olympic Club (Lake Course), San Francisco, Calif., 1955
154 (14 over), Southern Hills C.C., Tulsa, Okla., 1958
154 (10 over), Pebble Beach (Calif.) G.L., 1972
Lowest 36-Hole Cut
143 (+3), Olympia Fields (Ill.) C.C. (North Course), 2003
143 (+3), The Country Club (Open Course), 2022
144 (+2), Pebble Beach (Calif.) G.L., 2019
144 (+4), Baltusrol G.C. (Lower Course), Springfield, N.J., 1993
144 (+4), Bethpage State Park (Black Course), Farmingdale, N.Y., 2009
145 (+1), Medinah (Ill.) C.C. (No. 3 Course), 1990
145 (+1), Erin Hills, Erin, Wis., 2017
145 (+5), Oakland Hills C.C. (South Course), Birmingham, Mich., 1985
145 (+5), Oak Hill C.C. (East Course), Rochester, N.Y., 1989
145 (+5), Shinnecock Hills G.C., Southampton, N.Y., 2004
145 (+5), Pinehurst R. & C.C. (No. 2), Village of Pinehurst, N.C., 2014
145 (+5), Chambers Bay, University Place, Wash., 2015
Most Players to Make Cut
108, Oakland Hills C.C. (South Course), Bloomfield Hills, Mich., 1996
88, Baltusrol G.C. (Lower Course), Springfield, N.J., 1993
Most U.S. Opens Completed, 72 Holes
35, Jack Nicklaus
27, Hale Irwin
27, Sam Snead
26, Raymond Floyd
26, Phil Mickelson
26, Gene Sarazen
25, Gary Player
25, Tom Watson
Youngest to Make Cut (since World War II)
17/3/0 Beau Hossler, 2012, T-29th
17/8/29 Michael Thorbjornsen, 2019, 79th
18/1/25 Bobby Clampett, 1978, T-30th
18/4/25 Jack Nicklaus, 1958, T-41st
Oldest to Make Cut
61 Sam Snead, 1973, T-29
60 Tom Watson, 2010, T-29
58 Jack Nicklaus, 1998, T-43