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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — The PGA Tour finally got what it wanted at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this past week — a loaded leaderboard and familiar winner.
Scottie Scheffler won for the first time in nearly a year, capturing the API for the second time in three years for a 5-stroke victory. It was the largest victory at Bay Hill Club & Lodge since Tiger Woods in 2012.
Now, Scheffler will try to defend his title at the 50th Players Championship, the circuit’s signature event.
Rival LIV Golf League players aren’t the only ones who won’t be teeing it up at TPC Sawgrass this week. Woods, an 82-time winner on the PGA Tour, is also skipping the “fifth major” for undisclosed reasons.
While Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele and others will be competing for the richest purse in men’s professional golf, the 144-player field includes many not-so-familiar names, as LIV Golf League cut into the PGA Tour’s depth this year.
Here’s a look at who can win the PGA Tour’s signature event, the dark horses and the players who just hope to stick around for the weekend.
Jump to a section:
Guys who can win | If everything goes right
Longshots | Miracles happen | Happy to make the cut
Tier I: The guys who can win
Here are the legitimate contenders to win the Players. They have the games, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds.
Scottie Scheffler
It was only a matter of time before Scheffler figured things out on the greens to return to the winner’s circle. He made each of his last 23 putts from inside 15 feet to pull away for a dominant victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This week, he’ll try to do what no other golfer has done: Successfully defend his Players Championship title. The best finish by a defending champion is a tie for fifth.
Viktor Hovland
The reigning FedEx Cup champion has struggled to get things going this season, but his talent makes him dangerous each week. Hovland had top-10 finishes in each of his past two starts at the Players, including a tie for third last year.
Justin Thomas
JT’s well-documented struggles seem to be in the rear-view mirror — he had four top-12 finishes in his first five starts this season. According to Data Golf, Thomas is second — only to Scheffler — in true shots gained (+2.36) over the past six months heading into the API. The 2021 Players Championship winner seems close to collecting a trophy again.
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris is ramping things up again after recovering from back surgery in April that sidelined him for the rest of the 2023 season. He tied for second at the Genesis Invitational in February and for fourth at the API, a sign that his world-class ball striking is back.
Max Homa
Homa tied for sixth at the Players last season, his best career finish at the event. He was 8 under over the last 36 holes.
Rory McIlroy
Since winning the 2019 Players Championship, McIlroy has finished 33rd and missed two cuts. Last year, he doomed himself with a 4-over 76 on Thursday, his worst opening round since the 2021 Masters.
Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay finished 19th at the Players last season after missing three straight cuts in the event. It’s past time for him to start showing up consistently at majors, including the so-called fifth one.
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa posted a 7-under 65 in the first round at TPC Sawgrass last year, but then managed only even par over the last 54 holes. He tied for 13th at 7 under, his best finish in three starts.
Xander Schauffele
The Olympic gold medal winner hasn’t won in more than 19 months, but he’s playing great golf. He tied for second in his first Players Championship start in 2018, but hasn’t done much there since.
Hideki Matsuyama
The former Masters champion seemed to be healthy again, as evidenced by his victory against a loaded field at the Genesis, but then back pain flared up again before the API (he still tied for 12th). He was fifth at the Players last year after posting 67-68 on the weekend.
Jordan Spieth
Like Schauffele, Spieth had early success at TPC Sawgrass, tying for fourth in his debut in 2014. He had five missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 40 before tying for 19th last year.
Ludvig Åberg
There has been one first-time winner since the Players moved to TPC Sawgrass in 1982: New Zealand’s Craig Perks in 2002. Åberg is talented enough to do it. The Swede was sixth in the 2018 Junior Players Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood
The Englishman is still searching for his first victory on American soil. It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see it happen at TPC Sawgrass, where he has two top-10s in seven starts.
Jason Day
The Australian has been playing solid golf and has performed well at TPC Sawgrass, winning in 2016 and collecting three other top 10s. He is one of the tour’s better players on difficult courses and putts well on Bermuda greens.
Tier II: If everything goes right
Here are the sleeper candidates to win the Players. This tier includes a few previous major champions and a handful of players who will be making their first starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Keegan Bradley
Bradley had a nice run going at TPC Sawgrass until he missed the cut last year. He made a quadruple-bogey 8 on the par-4 18th hole, his ninth hole, to help send him home.
Min Woo Lee
The Australian played in the final group with Scheffler on Sunday last year. He carded a 4-over 76 and tied for sixth. He tied for second at the Cognizant Classic earlier this month.
Brian Harman
After a solid start to the season in Hawaii, Harman struggled a bit on the West Coast before bouncing back to tie for 12th at the API. He has three top-10s at TPC Sawgrass, and he should be more comfortable putting on greens in the Southeast.
Cameron Young
It’s beyond surprising that the 26-year-old hasn’t yet won on the PGA Tour. He has piled up six runner-up finishes and four top-10s in majors.
Matt Fitzpatrick
The 2022 U.S. Open winner’s results at TPC Sawgrass have been a mixed bag, which is surprising because the course seems to fit his game. He tied for ninth in 2021, followed by back-to-back missed cuts. He hit only four of 14 fairways in the first round last year.
Wyndham Clark
The reigning U.S. Open winner’s performance at the Players was forgettable until he finished 27th last year. He was disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard in 2019 and then had back-to-back missed cuts. He’s one of the longest hitters off the tee on tour, but his lack of accuracy might hurt him this week.
Sam Burns
There’s no question Burns is one of the best golfers in the world, but he’s still looking for a breakthrough in a big event. His best finish at the Players was a tie for 26th in 2022, when he played much better than his finish.
Tom Hoge
Hoge had two top-10 finishes against elite fields in signature events in February, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. He’ll have plenty of confidence after setting a Stadium Course record with a 10-under 62 in the third round last year, which helped him tie for third.
Sungjae Im
The South Korean’s form wasn’t great until he tied for 18th at the API. He figured out TPC Sawgrass last year, tying for sixth at 8 under. He carded an 8-under 64 in the third round.
Shane Lowry
Lowry has lived every Irishman’s dream by winning a Claret Jug and Ryder Cup. He opened the Players last year with a 5-over 77 but was 8 strokes better in the second round and nine in the third.
Matthieu Pavon
The 31-year-old became the first golfer from France since 1907 to win on the PGA Tour when he defeated Nicolai Hojgaard by 1 stroke at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total and is sixth in putting.
Tom Kim
Kim’s results in 2024 haven’t been great, but he’s already won three times on tour at 21. He tied for 51st in his Players Championship debut last season.
Nick Taylor
Taylor has won twice on tour since June, claiming the RBC Canadian Open and WM Phoenix Open. He’s part of the surging group of golfers from the Great White North that will try to pry the Presidents Cup away from the U.S. in Montreal in September.
Chris Kirk
His track record at TPC Sawgrass isn’t great after a tie for 12th in 2017. He beat a loaded field to pick up his sixth PGA Tour victory at the Sentry in January.
Adam Scott
The 43-year-old seems to have plenty left in the tank with top-20 finishes in each of his first three starts in 2024. It’s the 20th anniversary of his 2004 victory, when at the time, he became the youngest Players Championship winner at 23.
Tony Finau
“Big Tone” had three top-20 finishes in his first six starts this season, including a tie for sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open. After showing some improvement on the greens last season, his putting is a liability again.
Adam Hadwin
Hadwin collected three top-15s in his first six starts, including a tie for fourth at the Genesis Invitational. He has a pretty solid three-year run at the Players, too. We’d expect nothing less from a golfer born in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan.
Sahith Theegala
The 26-year-old is oozing with talent and has already finished ninth at the Masters and collected his first PGA Tour victory at the Fortinet Championship in September. He might be a little too wild off the tee, however, to contend at the Players.
Justin Rose
Rose, 43, is still finding his form this season. Last year, he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and then missed back-to-back cuts before tying for sixth at the Players.
Sepp Straka
The two-time PGA Tour winner tied for ninth at the Players in 2022. He’s one of nine former University of Georgia golfers in the field.
Tier III: The longshots
Everything would have to fall perfectly into place over 72 holes in four days for someone from this tier to win.
Jake Knapp
Will it be Knapp time in Ponte Vedra Beach? The former UCLA star picked up his first PGA Tour victory at the Mexico Open on Feb. 25 and has two other top-five finishes.
Eric Cole
The former mini-tour legend doesn’t seem overwhelmed by any stage. He had top-15 finishes in each of his first three starts against elite fields this season. He tied for 27th in his Players Championship debut last season.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Hojgaard, a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, will be making his Players Championship debut.
Austin Eckroat
After claiming his first PGA Tour win at the Cognizant Classic, Eckroat will make his Players Championship debut.
Si Woo Kim
In 2017, Kim became the youngest player to win the Players Championship with a bogey-free, 3-under 69 in the final round. At 21, he was the youngest player on tour at the time.
Erik van Rooyen
The former Minnesota star will come in hot after tying for eighth in the Mexico Open and for second at the Cognizant Classic. He tied for 13th in his only start at the Players in 2022.
Denny McCarthy
McCarthy makes cuts and putts, which is a good way to make a living on the PGA Tour. He’s one of the best putters in the world and is going to pick up his first tour victory at some point.
Corey Conners
Regarded as one of the best iron players on tour, Conners’ flat stick has been the problem lately. He finished seventh in the 2021 Players Championship.
Rickie Fowler
After his resurgence in 2023, Fowler has struggled mightily. The 2015 Players Championship winner has already used three drivers in competition and ranks 167th in strokes gained: off the tee (-.523).
Harris English
English has worked his way back into the top 50 in the world after hip surgery, but he doesn’t seem to be a fan of TPC Sawgrass. He last made a cut there in 2013.
Lucas Glover
It has been a so-so start to 2024 for Glover, especially compared to his epic heater at the end of the 2023 season, when he won back-to-back tournaments. He tied for sixth at TPC Sawgrass in 2017 but hasn’t done much since.
Russell Henley
Henley doesn’t hit it very far off the tee, but he doesn’t miss many fairways and keeps the ball in play. He had back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Players.
Keith Mitchell
He tied for 13th at the Players two years ago and stacked up four top-25 finishes in his first seven starts this season. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a little warm for cashmere in Ponte Vedra Beach.
J.T. Poston
The two-time tour winner has a pair of missed cuts and ties for 22nd at the Players.
Cam Davis
Davis had missed five straight cuts before tying for sixth at 8 under at the Players last year. He had missed the cut in his previous two starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Ryan Fox
A four-time winner on the DP World Tour, Fox tied for 27th in his first Players Championship start in 2023.
Justin Suh
The former world No. 1 amateur has been scuffling lately, but he had three rounds under par to tie for sixth at the Players in 2023.
Adam Svensson
The Canadian was the second-round leader after posting 68-67 in the first two rounds in his Players Championship debut. He tied for 13th at 7 under.
Brendon Todd
A three-time winner on tour, Todd tied for 27th last year, his best finish at TPC Sawgrass.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
The South African made the cut in both starts at the Players. He was tied for fourth entering the final round in 2023 and carded a 2-over 74 to tie for 13th.
Akshay Bhatia
Still only 22, Bhatia will be making his Players Championship debut. He won the Barracuda Championship in July.
Kurt Kitayama
Last year, Kitayama won on a difficult course at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied for fourth at the PGA Championship.
Billy Horschel
The hometown favorite is showing signs of putting his game back together after struggling for much of 2022-23.
Robert MacIntyre
MacIntyre, from Scotland, has missed three cuts and made three on the PGA Tour this season. He tied for sixth at the Mexico Open.
Tier IV: Hey, miracles happen
These golfers probably aren’t going to win the Players but they can all dream about doing it.
Gary Woodland
Woodland’s comeback from brain surgery in September has been inspiring. He’s still working his way back to contending.
Grayson Murray
McIlroy told Murray to play better instead of complaining. Murray did by picking up his second PGA Tour victory at the Sony Open in January.
Nick Dunlap
After becoming the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour in 33 years at the American Express on Jan. 21, Dunlap is still finding his way on tour.
Aaron Rai
The Englishman tied for 19th in his Players Championship debut last year. He is third on tour in driving accuracy, hitting 77% of the fairways.
Brandon Wu
The former Stanford golfer hasn’t done much of the PGA Tour yet. TPC Sawgrass seems to fit his eye-he tied for 19th at 6 under last year.
Joel Dahmen
The “Full Swing” star’s best finish at the Players came in his debut in 2019 when he tied for 12th.
Webb Simpson
The 2018 Players Championship winner doesn’t have his fastball anymore, missing the cut in his last three starts in the event.
Steve Stricker
The 57-year-old dominated the PGA Tour Champions circuit last year, winning six times. He last made the cut at the Players when he tied for 23rd in 2018.
Vincent Norrman
Normann, who won the Barbasol Championship and Irish Open last year, was dubbed the “Candy Man” because he worked in a sweets shop in Sweden as a kid.
Andrew Novak
The former Wofford golfer has put together a string of three straight top-10 finishes on tour.
Tier V: Happy to make the cut
They aren’t expected to be among the contenders and will be pleased to be around on the weekend.
Aaron Baddeley
Baddeley’s fourth PGA Tour victory came in 2016. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting (1.273) and has made 93% of his putts from inside 10 feet.
Michael Kim
Homa isn’t the only former Cal-Berkeley golfer who is entertaining on X. Kim won’t trash your swing, but he provides a good insight of life on tour.
Ryan Moore
It’s been rough sledding lately for the five-time PGA Tour winner. Moore has missed the cut in five of six starts in 2024.
Carl Yuan
Yuan jumped from 126th to 125th in the FedEx Cup standings when Jon Rahm left for LIV Golf, ensuring him full status on the PGA Tour for 2024. Yuan tied for fourth at the Sony Open in Hawaii.